投中网·2025-07-02 04:07Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly high-end liquor, is experiencing significant challenges, with prices declining and consumer preferences shifting towards lower-priced options [3][5][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - During the 2023 618 shopping festival, high-end liquor prices fell sharply, with Moutai's price dropping to as low as 1840 yuan per bottle, a significant decrease compared to the previous year [3][10]. - The sales volume of high-end liquor has remained stable, but the average transaction price has plummeted by nearly 60%, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards products priced between 300-600 yuan [4][10]. - The overall market value of the liquor industry is being diluted due to prolonged economic slowdown and industry adjustments, leading to a collapse of the price defense line for high-end liquor [7][9]. Group 2: Inventory and Supply Issues - The liquor industry is facing a severe inventory crisis, with total inventory across 20 listed companies reaching 153.6 billion yuan, a 12.41% increase year-on-year [17][19]. - The average inventory turnover days have risen to 868 days, indicating that products are taking nearly two and a half years to sell [17][19]. - The total social inventory is estimated to exceed 300 billion yuan, with 396.12 million tons of inventory liquor valued at approximately 760.9 billion yuan, pushing the entire industry's inventory scale beyond one trillion yuan [19][20]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior Changes - The primary consumer demographic for liquor is shifting, with younger generations (born between 1985-1994) becoming the new main consumers, accounting for 34% of the market [35][36]. - Younger consumers prioritize taste and flavor over brand recognition and price, indicating a significant change in consumption patterns [36][37]. - The trend of "drinking less but drinking better" is leading to a decline in consumption frequency among older generations, further impacting the high-end liquor market [25][26]. Group 4: Industry Dynamics - The liquor industry is undergoing a structural transformation, with a shift from a focus on brand prestige to a more realistic valuation based on actual consumption [32][33]. - High-end liquor brands are struggling to maintain their market positions as they face increased competition and price pressures, leading to a potential loss of profitability [15][31]. - The industry's pricing structure is under severe strain, with many brands resorting to price cuts and promotional strategies to maintain sales, which may not be sustainable in the long term [28][29].