[安泰科]多晶硅周评- 市场频现积极信号 回暖迹象日趋明朗（2025年7月2日）

Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon market shows signs of recovery with slight price increases, driven by stable production levels and government measures to control competition and support the industry [2][3]. Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is between 34,000 to 38,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 34,700 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight week-on-week increase of 0.87% [1]. - The average transaction price for n-type granular silicon remains stable at 33,500 yuan per ton [1]. Market Dynamics - The polysilicon market has seen a slight recovery, with some previously delayed orders being renegotiated at higher prices, despite most companies not securing significant new orders [2]. - The average price of polysilicon has been below the industry average cost for over a year, leading to the shutdown of four companies in the first half of this year and a total of nine since the beginning of 2024 [2]. Production and Supply - As of this week, the number of operating polysilicon companies in China has decreased to nine, with two additional companies recently ceasing operations without clear plans for resumption [3]. - Domestic polysilicon production in June was approximately 102,000 tons, remaining stable and matching demand, with a total production of about 596,000 tons in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 44.1% [3]. Future Outlook - The forecast for global polysilicon demand in 2025 is around 1.4 million tons, with domestic demand expected to be approximately 1.3 million tons [3]. - Without production increases from domestic polysilicon companies, the total output for the year is expected to be around 1.2 million tons, with inventory consumption of about 100,000 tons in the second half of the year [3]. - The industry must control capacity increases and push for the exit of outdated production capacities to fundamentally resolve supply-demand conflicts and stabilize prices across the photovoltaic industry chain [3].