爆冷！突发，利空！

Core Viewpoint - The recent ADP employment report indicates a surprising decline in U.S. private sector jobs, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, raising concerns about a slowdown in the labor market [1][3]. Group 1: Employment Data - In June, U.S. private sector employment decreased by 33,000 jobs, the first decline in over two years, with the previous month's increase revised down to only 29,000 [3][4]. - The service sector saw a significant job loss of 66,000 positions, particularly in professional and business services, as well as healthcare and education [6][9]. - Manufacturing, construction, and mining sectors experienced job growth, adding a total of 32,000 positions, which partially offset the overall decline [9]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Employers are increasingly cautious due to the impact of trade policies and are focused on aligning workforce numbers with the slowing economic activity [6]. - The average employment growth over the past three months has slowed to 18,700 jobs in May, the lowest level since the onset of the pandemic [9]. - The proportion of consumers who believe job opportunities are plentiful has dropped to the lowest level in over four years [9]. Group 3: Wage Growth and Future Expectations - Wage growth is showing signs of slowing, with salaries for job switchers increasing by 6.8% year-over-year, while those remaining in their positions saw a 4.4% increase [9]. - The upcoming government non-farm payroll report is expected to show an increase of 110,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% [11].