黄金将暴跌？又有机构加入看空阵营

Core Viewpoint - The market shows a clear divergence regarding the future trend of gold prices, which are currently at historical highs around $3,300 per ounce, with expectations of a potential decline due to improved global economic outlook and reduced geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][4][10]. Group 1: Current Gold Price Trends - As of July 2, 2025, spot gold prices have slightly increased to $3,347.4 per ounce, reflecting a 0.3% rise [1]. - After reaching a historical high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22, 2025, gold prices have been fluctuating around $3,300 per ounce [4]. - The World Gold Council reported a net outflow of approximately $1.8 billion from global physical gold ETFs in May 2025, marking the first monthly outflow since November 2024 [4][8]. Group 2: Regional ETF Flows - North America experienced the most significant impact, with gold ETFs seeing a net outflow of about $1.5 billion in May 2025, the first negative demand since January [8]. - Asia also faced a net outflow of approximately $489 million, primarily due to reduced safe-haven demand as trade tensions eased and stock markets rebounded [8]. - In contrast, European gold ETFs saw a modest inflow of about $225 million, with French funds offsetting outflows from Germany and the UK [8]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Citigroup forecasts that gold prices may decline to between $2,500 and $2,700 per ounce by the second half of 2026, citing reduced investment demand and improved economic conditions [9][10]. - Fitch Ratings also joined the bearish outlook, suggesting that the upward momentum for gold prices has likely peaked [13]. - Conversely, some institutions remain optimistic, with JPMorgan predicting gold prices could reach $6,000 per ounce by 2029, while Goldman Sachs expects prices to rise to $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 [14].