7月防御性资产或成首选！机构最新观点

Core Viewpoint - The global market is closely monitoring the outcome of the US tariff negotiations, which are expected to influence market pricing for July [1][5]. Group 1: US Tariff Negotiations and Market Impact - The deadline for the resumption of tariffs on July 9 has led to increased uncertainty, with the Senate passing a significant tax and spending bill, causing a generally pessimistic outlook for the US dollar [2][7]. - Since the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" in April, the US dollar index has dropped over 7%, while Asian currencies have collectively rebounded to new highs since October of the previous year [2][5]. - The market is showing a clear risk-averse tendency, with defensive assets becoming a primary choice for some investors due to the uncertainty surrounding US tariffs [3][10]. Group 2: Currency Movements and Economic Indicators - As of July 2, the US dollar index remained around 96, while the offshore RMB appreciated to around 7.15 against the dollar, marking its highest level since November [6]. - Other Asian currencies, including the Malaysian ringgit, South Korean won, and Thai baht, have also reached their highest points since October, with the Singapore dollar hitting a 10-year high [6]. Group 3: Hong Kong Market as a Safe Haven - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to attract more capital inflows due to its relatively low absolute valuations and improving corporate governance [3][12]. - Following the continuous depreciation of the US dollar, Hong Kong's Hibor rates have rapidly declined, with the one-month Hibor rate dropping to 0.52%, the lowest since data collection began in 2000 [11]. - The Hong Kong market is becoming a new "safe asset" stronghold, with significant international capital inflows anticipated as corporate governance reforms enhance shareholder returns [11][12]. Group 4: Valuation Comparisons - The Hong Kong stock market remains significantly undervalued compared to the US market, with the Hang Seng Index projected P/E ratio for 2025 at 11 times and a projected dividend yield of 3.2% [12]. - High dividend sectors such as banking, telecommunications, and utilities are expected to yield over 5%, making Hong Kong an attractive option for capital reallocating away from the US dollar [12].