Core Viewpoint - China is set to revise its electric vehicle (EV) battery safety standards, making them stricter than current regulations, which may benefit domestic manufacturers in international markets if the new standards are recognized as globally superior [1][3][5]. Group 1: New Standards and Implications - The new standards, effective from July next year, require that battery cells do not explode or catch fire within two hours after an anomaly occurs, a significant tightening from the previous requirement of a five-minute warning after thermal runaway [1][3]. - Major companies like CATL and BYD have already adapted their products to meet the new standards, while smaller firms may face challenges that could lead to their exit from the market [1][3][6]. - The revision marks the first change in five years and reflects China's ambition to dominate the global EV battery sector [3][6]. Group 2: Testing and Compliance - The new testing methods include both traditional external heating and new internal heating tests to provoke thermal runaway, making compliance more challenging for manufacturers [3][4]. - Companies must demonstrate that their products meet these new standards through rigorous testing, which may increase operational costs significantly [4][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competition - The global market share of Chinese battery manufacturers, including CATL, is currently at 38.7%, closely competing with South Korean firms at 39.7% [4]. - Frequent EV fire incidents, particularly involving batteries from Chinese manufacturers, could undermine consumer trust in "Made in China" products, potentially affecting market share [4][6]. - The new standards aim to address safety concerns and promote the adoption of EVs among consumers who are skeptical about their safety [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The development of solid-state batteries is seen as a competitive frontier among Chinese, Japanese, and South Korean firms, with expectations for these batteries to be integrated into EVs by around 2030 [6]. - The implementation of stricter standards may lead to a reduction in production capacity among smaller battery manufacturers, with estimates suggesting a 30% decrease by 2027 due to high compliance costs [6].
中国瞄准EV电池安全标准的全球主导权