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深夜突发!数据爆冷,美联储或提前降息?
天天基金网·2025-07-03 05:13

Core Viewpoint - The recent ADP employment data indicates a concerning trend in the U.S. job market, with a significant drop in private sector employment, leading to speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3][5]. Employment Data Analysis - The ADP report for June shows a decrease of 33,000 jobs in the private sector, marking the largest decline since March 2023, while the forecast was an increase of 98,000 jobs [3]. - Employment in goods-producing sectors rose by 32,000, but service-providing sectors saw a decline of 66,000 jobs, particularly in professional services, education and health services, and financial services [3]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to reflect similar weaknesses, with predictions of job growth significantly below market expectations [5]. Federal Reserve's Policy Outlook - The weak employment data is influencing expectations for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts, with predictions of a potential cut as early as July if the non-farm payroll data is disappointing [6][7]. - The probability of a rate cut in July has increased to approximately 27.4%, up from around 20% prior to the ADP data release [7]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary has urged the Federal Reserve to act on interest rates, suggesting that current rates are too high and criticizing the Fed for lagging behind market signals [7].