碳酸锂：反内卷这么有效果？

Core Viewpoint - The domestic lithium carbonate market is experiencing a rebound, with futures contracts recovering to 64,000 yuan, driven by short-term bullish sentiment and low valuations in the sector [2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rebound in lithium carbonate is primarily influenced by the "anti-involution" policy and expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S., leading to a significant reduction in short positions [2]. - Despite the short-term positive sentiment, the long-term outlook remains cautious as the "anti-involution" policy is unlikely to be implemented quickly, particularly in the new energy sector [2]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The challenges in the lithium carbonate market are not solely about industry self-discipline and technological innovation, but also involve the high bargaining power of downstream players, which pressures upstream companies into low-price competition or exit strategies [2]. - Closing a few lithium salt plants will not significantly impact capacity release, as the main constraint lies in lithium ore supply, and imposing tariffs on imported lithium ore is not feasible due to broader interests [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - After the short-term emotional release, the lithium carbonate market logic is expected to gradually return to fundamentals, indicating a need for further bottoming out until overseas lithium mining companies also adopt "anti-involution" measures [2].