美联储7月降不降息，就看今晚？

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is highly anticipated, especially after the unexpected negative ADP employment report, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts [1][2][8]. Group 1: Non-Farm Payroll Expectations - Economists predict that the U.S. non-farm payroll for June will show an increase of 106,000 jobs, down from 139,000 in the previous month, with the unemployment rate expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3% [3][5]. - The range of predictions from Wall Street institutions for the June non-farm payroll varies between 70,000 and 160,000 jobs [6][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Scenarios - If the non-farm payroll data is weak, the likelihood of a rate cut in July increases, while strong data would eliminate that possibility [2][10]. - Morgan Stanley outlines five potential scenarios based on the non-farm payroll results, with varying impacts on the S&P 500 index depending on the job growth figures [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17]. - A non-farm payroll result below 85,000 could signal recession risks, while results above 145,000 may lead to a reassessment of economic growth trajectories [10][17].