突变！美联储，降息大消息！

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected strong non-farm payroll data for June has significantly altered the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook, leading to a reduced likelihood of rate cuts in the near term [1][3][15]. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the expected 110,000 [6][8]. - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, lower than the anticipated 4.3% [8][12]. - Recent months' employment data have been revised upwards, with April's non-farm employment numbers adjusted from 147,000 to 158,000 and May's from 139,000 to 144,000, indicating resilience in the labor market [7][18]. Market Reaction - Following the release of the employment data, futures traders abandoned bets on a July rate cut, with the probability of the Fed maintaining rates in July rising to 93.3% and the chance of a 25 basis point cut falling to 6.7% [2][9]. - The U.S. dollar index surged by over 0.6%, while major U.S. stock index futures also rose, reaching intraday highs [11][12]. Analyst Commentary - Analysts suggest that the strong non-farm data may support the Fed's decision to remain on hold for a longer period, alleviating concerns about the labor market and reducing the urgency for rate cuts [17][20]. - Gregory Faranello, head of interest rate trading and strategy at AmeriVetSecurities, stated that the door for a July rate cut has likely closed, allowing the Fed to take a wait-and-see approach [16][20]. - The data indicates that the labor market has successfully weathered uncertainties from trade and immigration policies, which may lessen the pressure on the Fed to cut rates [15][20].