美元对人民币跌到 7.1，只是时间问题？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and various countries, highlighting the impact of tariffs and currency fluctuations on global markets and economies, particularly focusing on the strengthening of the Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar and the implications for exporters and importers [1][4][12]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The U.S. has reached a trade agreement with the UK, while negotiations with Vietnam have led to significant tariff changes, including a proposed 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam [4][5]. - The EU is facing tense negotiations with the U.S., with no substantial progress on the proposed 20% "reciprocal" tariffs, while Japan is trying to avoid a 24% tariff on its exports [5][6]. - Canada has resumed negotiations after withdrawing a digital tax measure, aiming for an agreement by July 21, with key issues remaining around steel and automotive tariffs [5][6]. Group 2: Currency Fluctuations - The structural trend of a weaker U.S. dollar is evident, with the yuan appreciating against the dollar, reaching a midpoint of 7.1523 on July 3, 2025, and expectations that it may soon break the 7.1 mark [1][12][14]. - Analysts suggest that the recent strength of the yuan is influenced by the ongoing trade tensions and the potential for exporters to convert their dollar holdings into yuan, with estimates indicating that up to $100 billion of the $700 billion held by exporters may be exchanged if the yuan continues to strengthen [14][15]. - The euro has also shown significant strength, appreciating nearly 10% against the dollar in the first half of 2025, marking a notable recovery from previous declines [8][10].