降息博弈或加剧美国经济不确定性

Group 1 - The U.S. government is pushing for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve to mitigate potential economic recession risks caused by tariff policies [1][2] - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill aims to stimulate the economy by increasing government debt and potentially lowering interest costs through rate cuts [2][3] - If the Federal Reserve does not cut rates, it may lead to a significant increase in the federal deficit, while premature rate cuts could trigger inflation and reduce demand for U.S. Treasury bonds [2][3] Group 2 - The depreciation of the U.S. dollar, which has fallen approximately 10.8% this year, is increasing inflationary pressures due to tariffs [2][3] - Historical data suggests that a weaker dollar combined with high tariffs will likely impact U.S. prices, as seen in previous administrations [3][4] - Concerns are rising regarding the quality of U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with an increase in estimated data affecting inflation accuracy [4] Group 3 - Recent employment data shows a significant increase in non-farm payrolls, indicating that the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates may be justified [4] - The ongoing conflict between the White House and the Federal Reserve could introduce more uncertainty into the market, particularly with the potential impact of immigration policies on employment data [4]