日经调查预测：中国经济4～6月增长5%

Core Viewpoint - Economists predict China's GDP growth for Q2 2025 to average 5.0%, slightly lower than the actual growth rate of 5.4% in Q1 2025, with trade tensions with the US being a significant concern but exports to Southeast Asia providing some support [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth Predictions - The highest predicted growth rate for Q2 2025 is 5.3%, while the lowest is 4.3%, indicating a slowdown compared to Q1 2025 [3]. - The average seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth rate is 0.8%, down from 1.2% in Q1 2025 [3]. - For the entire year of 2025, the average growth expectation is 4.6%, with many economists believing the government’s target of around 5% is unlikely to be met [4]. Group 2: Trade Relations and Impact - The US-China trade negotiations have led to a reduction in additional tariffs by 115%, which may improve the economic outlook [3]. - Despite a decrease in direct exports to the US, exports to ASEAN and other regions have compensated for this decline [3][4]. - The temporary suspension of additional tariffs is expected to maintain the effective tariff rate on Chinese products at around 40% until the end of 2025 [4]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Retail Sales - In May 2025, China's retail sales grew by 6.4% year-on-year, driven by government subsidies for replacing old appliances [3]. - However, analysts express concerns that this growth may be temporary, predicting a slowdown in the second half of the year [3]. Group 4: Economic Risks and Concerns - UBS warns that uncertainties in US-China negotiations could lower growth rates by 1-1.5 percentage points, with a predicted growth rate of 4% for 2025 being the lowest in the survey [6]. - Key risk factors identified include a sluggish real estate market and weak consumer spending, exacerbated by falling property prices [6]. - There are concerns about a potential deflationary spiral leading to worsened corporate performance and reduced consumer spending [6].