美降息再生变？！深夜，黄金跳水，美元拉升！

Core Viewpoint - The strong non-farm employment data for June has diminished expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in July, indicating a resilient labor market [1][2][9]. Group 1: Employment Data - The U.S. Labor Department reported a seasonally adjusted increase of 147,000 jobs in June, surpassing the expected 110,000, and slightly above the revised 144,000 jobs added in May [1]. - Government employment saw a significant increase of 73,000 jobs, primarily due to steady growth in state and local hiring, particularly in education-related positions [1]. - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest since February, while the labor force participation rate dropped to 62.3%, the lowest since the end of 2022 [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, the probability of a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve dropped from 23.8% to 4.7%, with market expectations shifting to a potential rate cut in September instead [2]. - The U.S. dollar index experienced a short-term increase of approximately 40 points before stabilizing [3]. - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 4.334% following the employment report [4]. Group 3: Economic Commentary - Jeff Schulze, Chief Economic and Market Strategist at ClearBridge Investments, stated that the strong employment report confirms the robustness of the labor market and closes the door on a July rate cut [9]. - The resilient job market provides the Federal Reserve with greater confidence to maintain interest rates, despite ongoing pressure from President Trump regarding the Fed's operations and costs [9].