全球上半年最牛资产：黄金平替

Core Viewpoint - Platinum has emerged as a significant investment opportunity in the first half of 2025, with prices rising over 40% due to increased imports from China and decreased supply from South Africa, despite concerns over U.S. import tariffs [1][5]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - Platinum prices surged by 36% in Q2 2025, driven by a combination of supply constraints and rising demand, particularly from China [1][5]. - In June, platinum prices jumped 28%, marking the strongest monthly performance since 1986, reaching an 11-year high of $1432.6 per ounce [3]. - The influx of platinum into the New York Commodity Exchange was a response to fears of U.S. tariffs, leading to temporary supply tightness and increased leasing rates [5][6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - South Africa, the largest producer of platinum, reported a 24% year-on-year decline in production in April 2025, contributing to supply shortages [5]. - China's platinum imports rose to 12.57 tons in May, up from 11.54 tons in April, indicating strong demand [5]. - The World Platinum Investment Council noted a 26% increase in China's platinum jewelry processing in Q1 2025, further supporting demand [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - Analysts express caution regarding the sustainability of platinum's price increase, citing potential slowdowns in Chinese imports and a recovery in South African production [4][7]. - Metals Focus predicts a supply shortage of 52,900 ounces in the global platinum market this year, but inventory levels are expected to remain high, providing a buffer [8]. - The automotive industry's weakening demand for platinum, due to the rise of electric vehicles and trade disputes, poses a long-term risk to platinum prices [10].