工业硅市场情绪回暖 期现价格连续上涨

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a recovery in sentiment and price increase due to rising futures prices, production cuts from major northern manufacturers, and increased demand from polysilicon [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Industrial silicon futures have shown significant upward momentum since June 23, hovering around 8000 yuan/ton recently [1] - Major northern manufacturers are not meeting production resumption expectations and have begun to cut production, alleviating supply pressure [1] - Although some manufacturers in the southwest region are resuming production due to lower electricity prices, overall market prices remain unsatisfactory, with operating rates significantly below previous years [1] Group 2: Inventory and Supply-Demand Balance - Inventory has been gradually decreasing since April, indicating a basic balance between supply and demand; as of July 3, 2025, industrial silicon warehouse inventory stood at 259,300 tons, down 54,200 tons in one month [1] - The supply side still has potential for growth, but limited by low operating rates in the southwest and production cuts from major manufacturers [1] - Demand is slightly increasing due to the resumption of polysilicon production, high operating rates in organosilicon, and stable demand for aluminum alloys, suggesting a continued state of supply-demand balance [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The production cut plans from major manufacturers and the expected resumption of polysilicon production are boosting market sentiment [1] - Continuous monitoring of production changes from major manufacturers and shifts in downstream demand is essential, with expectations of slight price increases [1]