第一财经·2025-07-04 09:56Core Viewpoint - The "Big and Beautiful" bill has been passed by the U.S. House of Representatives, which will terminate electric vehicle tax credits, potentially impacting the growth of the U.S. electric vehicle manufacturing industry, particularly affecting Tesla [1][2]. Group 1: Legislative Impact - The "Big and Beautiful" bill will end the $7,500 tax credit for new electric vehicles and the $4,000 credit for used electric vehicles by September 30 this year [1]. - Analysts predict that the cancellation of these tax credits could lead to a $1.2 billion profit loss risk for Tesla [1]. Group 2: Market Performance - Tesla's global delivery volume for Q2 this year was 384,100 units, a year-on-year decline of approximately 13.5%, marking two consecutive quarters of declining deliveries [2]. - Tesla's market share in the U.S. electric vehicle market is projected to drop from 55% in 2023 to about 49% in 2024, further decreasing to 44% in Q1 of this year [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Following the bill's passage, stock prices for General Motors and Ford have risen by 7.5% and 8.8%, respectively, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards traditional automakers [3]. - The bill is seen as confirming a trend of slowing electric vehicle adoption in the U.S., contrasting with previous stringent emissions regulations aimed at promoting electric vehicles [3]. Group 4: Future Projections - By 2032, automakers may need to increase electric vehicle sales to 56% of total sales, with plug-in hybrids at 13% and traditional fuel vehicles at only 29% [4]. - Despite the slower-than-expected growth of electric vehicles, sales of new energy vehicles (including hybrids) are projected to account for 20% of total new car sales in the U.S. by 2024 [4].