“七翻身”能否上演？胜率、逻辑与策略全奉上

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "July Rebound" phenomenon in the A-share market, highlighting its historical patterns and potential investment opportunities based on behavioral finance and market trends [1][2]. Historical Performance - Over the past 15 years (2010-2024), the average return of the A-share index in June was -1.1%, while in July it rebounded to 0.9%, indicating a typical "bottoming-out and rebound" pattern [2]. - The success rate of the July rebound over the past 15 years was only 60%, with notable exceptions such as a more than 15% decline in July 2015 due to a liquidity crisis [2]. Structural Characteristics - The July market typically exhibits structural characteristics, with high success rates in sectors like military, new energy, and resource industries such as steel, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, driven by policy expectations and industry cycles [2]. Driving Forces Behind July Rebound - The July rebound is supported by three main factors: liquidity recovery, policy signals from the Central Political Bureau meeting, and the onset of mid-year earnings reports, which can enhance market sentiment and structural opportunities [5]. Investment Opportunities - In July, focus on sectors with earnings forecast discrepancies and recovery potential, including non-US export chains, price increase chains, AI chains, and financial sectors [6]. - The military sector is expected to benefit from policy and event-driven catalysts, particularly during the transition from the 14th to the 15th Five-Year Plan [6]. - The technology sector, especially AI, is anticipated to continue its upward trend due to favorable valuations and market sentiment [6]. - Resource sectors are likely to see improvements due to seasonal demand and price increases in the third quarter [6].