全球上半年最牛资产：黄金平替

Core Viewpoint - Platinum has emerged as a significant investment opportunity in 2025, with prices rising over 40% in the first half of the year, driven by increased demand from China and supply constraints from South Africa [1][4]. Group 1: Factors Driving Platinum Prices - The surge in platinum prices is attributed to multiple factors, including a significant increase in imports from China and a 24% year-on-year decline in South African production in April [4][5]. - In June, platinum prices soared by 28%, marking the strongest monthly performance since 1986, reaching an 11-year high of $1432.6 per ounce [3][4]. - The World Platinum Investment Council reported a 26% increase in China's platinum jewelry processing in Q1, further supporting demand [5][6]. Group 2: Potential Challenges Ahead - Analysts express concerns about the sustainability of platinum's price increase, citing expected slowdowns in Chinese imports and a recovery in South African production [3][8]. - Metals Focus predicts a supply shortage of 52,900 ounces in the global platinum market this year, but inventory levels are expected to remain high at 9.2 million ounces, equivalent to 14 months of demand [8]. - The recent spike in platinum prices may dampen demand, with expectations of a decline in Chinese imports following a strong performance in the previous months [9][10]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The automotive sector, a major consumer of platinum for catalytic converters, faces challenges due to the rise of electric vehicles and reduced production forecasts, which could weaken platinum demand [11]. - Nornickel, the largest palladium producer, indicated that further increases in platinum prices could lead to a shift towards palladium as a substitute when the price difference exceeds 30% [11][12]. - Despite cautious outlooks from analysts, there is no expectation of a significant price correction, with many believing that platinum prices will stabilize above previous levels, supporting miner profitability [13].