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Group 1: Long-term Optimism Toward China's Economy - The long-term optimistic outlook for China's economy remains unchanged, with ongoing economic transformation viewed as a gradual process [2][3][11] - New growth drivers for China are identified, including energy transition initiatives like electric vehicles and the technology sector, which has attracted significant investment [10][11] - The high degree of global economic integration makes it difficult to reverse globalization, despite current trade conflicts [2][13][20] Group 2: Trade Issues and Globalization - Trade fragmentation poses significant challenges, disrupting supply chains and potentially hindering economic growth, but there is optimism for long-term resolution [14][16] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has had limited impact on the global economy, primarily affecting oil prices [8][9] - The risk of globalization stalling is acknowledged, with the past 20 years showing an upward trend, but recent years indicating a plateau [20] Group 3: US Economic Concerns - The US government debt problem is longstanding, with rising interest costs and potential pressure on fiscal spending programs like Social Security in the next 5 to 8 years [22][24][25] - Despite concerns, the risk of US default is considered almost zero, as countries issuing debt in their own currency do not need to default [25] - Clients of Amundi Asset Management express concerns about US asset price adjustments, but do not view the weakening of "American exceptionalism" as a serious risk [28][30] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to moderately reduce their allocation to US assets, as the US accounted for over 70% of the MSCI World Index by the end of 2024 [30][32] - Recent capital flows into European and emerging markets indicate a trend towards portfolio diversification rather than large-scale selling of US stocks [31][32] - The focus on diversified investment is seen as a prudent strategy in light of the high concentration of US assets in global portfolios [31][32] Group 5: Key Risks - Major risks identified for the upcoming year include prolonged tariff negotiations, geopolitical fragmentation, and economic growth falling below expectations [33][34] - Concerns about public debt and interest rates in a slowing growth environment could lead to negative consequences for investors [33][34]