券商中国·2025-07-04 23:08Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown remarkable performance in the first half of the year, outperforming major global indices, with a 20% increase in the Hang Seng Index, attracting significant investment interest, particularly in the innovative pharmaceutical sector [2][3][4]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 20% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 18.68%, significantly outperforming indices like the NASDAQ and Nikkei [3]. - The market experienced two main phases of growth: the first in Q1 driven by advancements in AI, and the second in Q2 following a recovery from initial trade war fears [3][4]. Fund Performance - Hong Kong-themed funds dominated the QDII performance rankings, with the top fund, Huatai-PB Hong Kong Advantage Select, achieving an 85.64% return, primarily due to its focus on innovative pharmaceuticals [4][5]. - Other notable funds include E Fund Global Healthcare Industry, which also invested heavily in leading biotech firms [5]. Valuation Insights - Despite reaching a three-year high, Hong Kong stocks remain undervalued compared to US markets, with a forecasted P/E ratio of 11 and a dividend yield of 3.2% for the Hang Seng Index [6]. - The valuation advantage is further highlighted by a 130-point premium of the A/H index, indicating ongoing attractiveness for investors [6]. Capital Inflows - Estimated net inflows from mainland China to Hong Kong could reach between HKD 200 billion to 300 billion this year, with total inflows potentially exceeding HKD 1 trillion [7]. - The current market environment in mainland China, characterized by excess liquidity and a lack of quality assets, is conducive to continued investment in Hong Kong stocks [7]. Sector Focus - There is a shift in investment focus towards less crowded sectors as funds may seek to diversify away from high-concentration areas like innovative pharmaceuticals [8]. - Key investment themes include high-certainty assets, innovative sectors, and global inflation-sensitive resources, with particular attention on construction, insurance, and technology [8][9].