新一轮“去产能”：成因、方案和给普通人的建议

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of "involution" competition in recent years is not merely due to the short-sightedness of companies and employees, but is deeply rooted in macroeconomic backgrounds influenced by economic cycles, institutional issues, and technological development patterns [1][27]. Group 1: Industry Responses to Involution - The automotive industry has been notably active, with a significant "60-day account period revolution" and calls from the National Federation of Industry and Commerce for manufacturers to shorten rebate periods and simplify policies [3][4]. - The pig farming sector is also responding, with major companies being urged to reduce production capacity and stabilize prices, controlling the weight of pigs for market [5]. - The photovoltaic industry is proactively reducing production, with leading glass manufacturers planning a collective 30% cut in output [6]. - The cement industry is undergoing self-examination, with the China Cement Association requiring members to align actual production with registered capacity [7]. Group 2: Historical Context of Capacity Reduction - Historical capacity reduction efforts have typically focused on high-pollution and high-energy-consuming traditional industries, employing methods such as limiting new capacity and eliminating outdated production [16][20]. - The current round of capacity reduction is characterized by a broader scope, including emerging industries like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles, indicating a shift from traditional sectors [21][22]. Group 3: Economic and Policy Factors - The low demand in the domestic market and uncertainties in foreign demand are contributing to the "involution" competition, exacerbated by supply-demand mismatches in certain industries [28]. - Local governments' performance evaluation mechanisms lead to "race-to-the-bottom" competition, distorting industry entry costs and slowing down market adjustments [29]. - Technological advancements often result in structural overcapacity, particularly in emerging industries, as companies invest heavily to adapt to rapid changes [30]. Group 4: Future Directions and Recommendations - To address "involution" competition, authorities should enhance counter-cyclical adjustments to boost domestic demand and reform the income distribution structure to improve labor compensation [34][36]. - Encouraging differentiated competition among enterprises and establishing industry standards can help mitigate excessive competition [38]. - A tailored approach to supply-side guidance based on industry-specific technological development patterns is necessary to support innovation [39]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Investors should be aware of the typical patterns of capacity reduction, as stock prices in affected industries may initially drop but can rebound significantly post-adjustment [57]. - Emerging industries such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence, despite current bubbles, present substantial arbitrage opportunities [58].