美联储7月降息希望破灭？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill on the U.S. economy, highlighting the resilience of the labor market despite uncertainties from trade and immigration policies, and the reduced likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the near term [1][2][12]. Labor Market Resilience - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding expectations of 106,000, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping from 4.2% to 4.1% [6]. - Government employment saw a significant increase of 73,000 jobs, particularly in state and local sectors related to education, while private sector job growth was only 74,000, the lowest since October of the previous year [6][7]. - The labor force participation rate showed a decline, with a drop of 130,000 in the overall labor population, indicating a reduction in labor supply [7]. "Big and Beautiful" Bill Implications - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, passed by the House, extends tax cuts for corporations and individuals, with a focus on reducing corporate taxes, which is expected to benefit high-income groups while negatively impacting low-income households [9][10]. - The bill is projected to increase the annual GDP growth rate by 0.2 percentage points from 2025 to 2027, with a maximum effect of 0.6% in 2026-2027 [10]. - However, it is anticipated to lead to a significant increase in federal debt, with estimates suggesting a $4.5 trillion cost over the next decade due to extended tax cuts [11]. Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Outlook - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July has diminished, with a focus shifting towards inflation concerns rather than immediate economic deterioration [12][13]. - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding interest rate cuts have become more pronounced, with some officials advocating for no cuts this year [14]. - The overall economic resilience may support a wait-and-see approach from the Federal Reserve, with a potential for rate cuts in September if conditions warrant [14].