速递｜大模型比应用估值便宜？OpenAI、Anthropic增速碾压同行却估值倍数低

Core Insights - OpenAI and Anthropic are rapidly growing AI model manufacturers, expanding into application domains while maintaining relatively conservative valuations compared to application-layer companies [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Performance - Anthropic's annualized revenue is projected to be around $4 billion, having achieved this target ahead of schedule, with a valuation of $61.5 billion at a 15x revenue multiple [2][3] - OpenAI's annualized revenue is expected to reach $12 billion, with a valuation of $300 billion at a 25x revenue multiple [2][3] - Both companies are experiencing growth rates significantly higher than the median growth rates of other top software companies, which stand at 11% [3] Group 2: Market Positioning - OpenAI and Anthropic are positioned as leaders in creating a new industry rather than merely disrupting existing ones, justifying their higher valuation premiums [5] - The valuation multiples for smaller competitors like Cohere and Mistral AI exceeded 200x annual sales, highlighting the disparity in market expectations [5] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - OpenAI and Anthropic are encroaching on the territory of AI application developers, similar to strategies employed by major cloud providers [6] - The introduction of new products, such as Anthropic's programming assistant Claude Code and OpenAI's AI agents, is expected to drive revenue growth [6][7] Group 4: Investment Sentiment - Despite the rapid growth, there are concerns about the sustainability of their cash burn rates and potential competition from low-cost alternatives and open-source models like Meta's Llama [1][7] - Investors are increasingly cautious, as seen in the case of Perplexity, which faced challenges in meeting high revenue expectations despite a significant valuation increase [4][7]