光伏，狼真的来了

Core Viewpoint - The A-share photovoltaic sector has experienced a significant rebound since July 2, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like Yamaton and Yijing Photovoltaic, indicating a potential turning point after three years of decline [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since July 2, 2025, Yamaton and Yijing Photovoltaic saw stock price increases of 33% and 26% respectively over three trading days [1]. - Major companies such as Daqo Energy and Tongwei Co. also experienced gains exceeding 10% [1]. - The photovoltaic sector has faced a cumulative decline of over 50% since its peak in 2022, with some leading companies suffering losses of over 80% [3]. Group 2: Government Policy and Industry Outlook - The sixth Central Financial Committee meeting emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and promote the exit of outdated production capacity in the photovoltaic sector [5][6]. - This policy direction is seen as a potential precursor to a supply-side reform similar to that initiated in the coal and steel industries in 2015 [7][10]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting focusing on the photovoltaic industry, where it was discussed to control the total production of polysilicon to not exceed 1.4 million tons by 2030, indicating a potential reduction of over 56% in capacity [8][9]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Investment Opportunities - The current market sentiment reflects a belief that the photovoltaic industry may be on the verge of a significant turnaround, with expectations of concrete policy implementations soon [15][19]. - A proposed alliance among six leading polysilicon companies aims to establish a 70 billion yuan fund to acquire and retire excess production capacity, which could facilitate a more orderly market exit for smaller firms [17][18]. - The current cash cost of polysilicon production for leading companies is around 27,000 to 35,000 yuan per ton, with a reasonable price expectation of 45,000 to 50,000 yuan to ensure profitability [25][26]. Group 4: Market Structure and Future Prospects - The global polysilicon market is heavily concentrated in China, with the top six companies accounting for over 80% of the market share [21]. - The integration of polysilicon production is expected to be less challenging compared to other segments, suggesting a higher potential for price recovery [22]. - The photovoltaic sector's overall valuation is currently at a historical low after three years of decline, indicating potential for valuation recovery as fundamental conditions improve [27].