中外资机构热议下半年投资机遇

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment opportunities in the second half of 2025, highlighting a positive outlook for the Chinese stock market and the need for diversified asset allocation in a weak dollar scenario [2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies for Chinese Markets - A-shares and H-shares are expected to maintain a high-level oscillation pattern, with potential upward space due to improved fundamentals and profit expectations [12][11]. - The technology sector, particularly in 5G, robotics, and AI applications, is anticipated to yield excess returns, supported by increased capital inflow from southbound funds [12][11]. - A "barbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on high-dividend state-owned enterprises as defensive assets while also investing in technology and consumer sectors [13][14]. Group 2: Currency Outlook - The RMB is projected to appreciate moderately with two-way fluctuations, supported by a stable domestic economy and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [15][18]. - The current account surplus is expected to maintain around 1% of GDP, providing a solid foundation for RMB stability [15][18]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Policy Predictions - Fiscal policy will focus on growth support and structural optimization, with an emphasis on social welfare, green transition, and new productivity [17]. - Monetary policy is likely to remain moderately loose, with potential for one interest rate cut and one reserve requirement ratio cut within the year [18][19]. Group 4: Impact of U.S. Policies - The "Big and Beautiful" Act may raise concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability, potentially leading to increased market volatility and long-term economic challenges [21][22]. - The Federal Reserve's focus may shift from inflation control to growth preservation, with expected interest rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 [22][23]. Group 5: Global Asset Allocation Strategies - A declining dollar index may relieve global debt burdens and shift capital flows towards non-dollar assets, increasing demand for gold, euros, and RMB [25][26]. - A diversified global stock allocation is recommended, with an emphasis on emerging markets and alternative investments as attractive options [26][27].