为更激烈的全球经贸扰动未雨绸缪

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of Trump's new tax and spending legislation on both the U.S. economy and the global economic landscape, emphasizing a shift towards a "small government" approach that includes tax cuts and deregulation, which is expected to enhance productivity and economic growth in the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: U.S. Economic Policy Changes - The new legislation includes tax reductions, spending cuts, increased military spending, and a rise in the deficit, which collectively aim to boost the U.S. economy [1] - The "small government" philosophy is expected to lower operational costs and improve efficiency within the U.S. economy, potentially increasing marginal labor productivity [1][3] - The ongoing trade conflicts and increased tariffs are anticipated to accelerate the U.S. capital expenditure cycle, as high tariffs may lead multinational companies to invest more in the U.S. market [2] Group 2: Global Economic Implications - The prolonged duration of high tariffs and trade conflicts is likely to further stimulate U.S. capital expenditure, prompting the government to endure and extend conflicts with trade partners [2] - Countries are currently reacting to the trade war initiated by the U.S., often in a defensive manner, which limits their ability to formulate strategic responses [2][3] - Nations, including China, need to prepare comprehensive strategies to counteract U.S. trade policies and avoid falling into a reactive trap [2] Group 3: Domestic Reforms in Response - In light of external uncertainties, domestic reforms in China are accelerating, focusing on building a unified national market and addressing issues like low-price competition [3] - The orderly exit of outdated production capacity and market reforms are expected to enhance China's core competitiveness and reshape its economic framework [3] - A well-matched relationship between limited government and effective markets could elevate China's economic activities and productivity, enabling it to better withstand external shocks [3]