“大而美”法案将如何影响美元资产

Core Viewpoint - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill signed by President Trump is controversial due to its cuts to healthcare, increase in long-term debt, cancellation of clean energy incentives, and tax reductions for the wealthy and large corporations [1][4]. Summary by Sections Bill Overview - The "Big and Beautiful" bill extends current tax cuts, reduces healthcare and nutrition assistance spending, increases military and border security spending, and eliminates government support for electric vehicles and solar projects [6]. Public Opinion - A recent poll indicates that 50% of voters oppose the "Big and Beautiful" bill, while only 36% support it [6]. Economic Impact - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will increase national debt by $4.1 trillion by 2034 and result in 11.8 million Americans losing healthcare coverage [4][6]. Healthcare System Effects - The bill is expected to cut approximately $900 billion from Medicaid over the next few years, reversing progress made during the Biden and Obama administrations [6]. - Stricter requirements for states to apply for federal matching funds may lead to reduced Medicaid coverage or benefits [6]. - A "work requirement" clause will mandate Medicaid beneficiaries to work, volunteer, or participate in education for at least 80 hours per month, potentially causing millions to lose coverage [6][7]. Business and Tax Implications - The bill has been welcomed by business organizations as it reinstates tax deductions for equipment purchases and provides tax incentives for semiconductor manufacturers building facilities in the U.S. [8]. - High-income households are projected to see an average net income increase of 3%, while low-income households may experience a 1.1% decrease in actual income [8]. Stock Market Sentiment - Despite concerns over increased fiscal deficits, foreign institutions remain optimistic about U.S. equities, predicting continued growth in the stock market [10]. - The S&P 500 index reached 6279.35 points, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 7% [10]. Bond Market Outlook - Concerns over high debt servicing costs and trade tensions have led to a negative sentiment towards U.S. dollars and bonds [12]. - The 10-year Treasury yield has fluctuated, with expectations of further increases in long-term rates due to refinancing risks [13][14]. Currency Trends - A weak dollar is anticipated as market participants seek to diversify away from U.S. assets, with the dollar index recently reported at 96.82 [15]. - The euro has appreciated over 10% against the dollar, reflecting investor sentiment towards reducing dollar exposure [15][16].