DRAM现货价格1个月涨至2倍

Core Viewpoint - The price of 8GB DDR4 DRAM has surged over 2 times in the past month, driven by expectations of reduced global supply as major manufacturers like CXMT plan to phase out DDR4 production in favor of newer technologies like DDR5 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of June 25, the price of 8GB DDR4 was approximately $4.9, which has recently increased to around $4.65 by June 27 [2]. - The current price surge is attributed to reports that CXMT is preparing to phase out DDR4 production by mid-2026, leading to heightened expectations of supply reduction [2][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - CXMT is following major DRAM players like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron in the production of DDR4, while also facing pressures from U.S.-China trade tensions [3]. - There is a belief that CXMT's market share will approach 15% this year as it shifts focus towards next-generation products [4]. Group 3: Trading Behavior - The current price increase has led to a reduction in sellers betting on DDR4, with intermediaries actively purchasing [5]. - Most DRAM transactions are conducted through bulk trades between manufacturers and equipment/module manufacturers, with the spot market serving as a short-term supply and demand indicator [4][5]. Group 4: Future Expectations - The ongoing transition of major manufacturers to new products is expected to continue driving up prices in the bulk trading market [6].