特朗普发函通知10%-70%新关税？“最后通牒”推迟

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending implementation of new tariffs by the U.S. government, with a focus on the potential economic impacts and the ongoing trade negotiations with various countries [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation and Negotiations - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced that President Trump will send letters to trade partners regarding planned tariff rates, with a deadline for negotiations extended to August 1 if no agreement is reached [1][4]. - The new tariffs are expected to range from 10% to 70%, and the U.S. government is focusing on negotiations with 18 major trade partners [5][9]. - The deadline of July 9 for reaching agreements has been emphasized as critical, with the potential for tariffs to revert to levels established on April 2 if no agreements are made [5][8]. Group 2: Market and Economic Impact - The potential for tariffs to remain unchanged could lead to a 1.5% decline in economic growth, which the stock market has not yet fully priced in [1][6]. - Current market sentiment is uncertain, with expectations that the tariff suspension will either be extended or a base rate of 10% will be implemented [7][8]. - The actual economic impact of tariffs may have a lag effect, as importers are currently absorbing costs without passing them on to consumers, which could lead to an increase in inflation from 2.4% to 3.1% over the next 12 months [8][9]. Group 3: International Trade Relations - India has taken a hard stance, indicating it will impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, while South Korea is seeking to extend negotiation timelines [9]. - The European Union is engaged in ongoing negotiations with the U.S., with significant trade implications for the EU economy, particularly given the high tariffs on key exports [9].