面对市场不确定性，投资何去何从

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing uncertainty in the global economic environment, particularly due to fluctuating U.S. trade policies, which negatively impact GDP growth forecasts for major economies in 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Current Market Environment - Uncertainty is a critical factor in global economic development and outlook, largely stemming from unpredictable economic policies of major countries [3]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised down GDP growth forecasts for the U.S., Europe, and emerging markets for 2025 following trade tensions [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy in Uncertain Times - Investors should focus on high-quality companies that can thrive in a high-interest-rate environment, as not all companies will flourish under increased financing costs [5]. - High-quality companies typically exhibit characteristics such as long-term management vision, strong adaptability, and valuations based on free cash flow [6]. - Active fund managers may have a greater willingness and ability to analyze these companies compared to passive managers, who often rely on market indices for portfolio construction [6]. Group 3: Importance of Long-Term Investment - Investment should be viewed as sharing in the growth of the economy and companies, rather than merely reacting to market fluctuations [6][7]. - The article stresses that market prices will eventually reflect the intrinsic value of companies over time, reinforcing the idea that short-term market movements should not dictate investment decisions [7]. Group 4: Multi-Asset Allocation - Diversification is essential for risk management, as it helps mitigate the impact of market uncertainties [8][9]. - The concept of correlation is crucial in constructing a diversified portfolio, as combining assets with low correlation can reduce overall investment risk [9][10]. - Regular rebalancing and careful consideration of asset correlations are necessary to maintain an effective multi-asset allocation strategy [10]. Group 5: Maintaining Confidence Amid Uncertainty - Investors should acknowledge and confront their fears regarding uncertainty, as this is a normal psychological response [11]. - Long-term commitment to investment, rather than attempting to time the market, is more likely to yield success [11][13]. - Historical data shows that markets tend to recover from uncertainties, reinforcing the importance of maintaining investment discipline and a diversified portfolio [13][14].