央行出手，继续狂买

Group 1 - As of June 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 33,174 billion USD, marking a 322 billion USD increase from May, representing a 0.98% rise. This is the 19th consecutive month above 3.2 trillion USD and the 6th month of month-on-month growth [1][2] - In the first half of 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves increased consistently, with monthly increases of 66.79 billion USD, 182 billion USD, 134.41 billion USD, 410 billion USD, 36 billion USD, and 322 billion USD [2] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, with a total of 7,390 million ounces (approximately 2,298.55 tons) as of June, an increase of 7 million ounces (approximately 2.18 tons) from May [1][2] Group 2 - Global central banks have shown strong demand for gold, with net purchases of 244 tons in the first quarter of 2025, despite a slight slowdown compared to the previous quarter [3] - The global gold ETF demand turned negative in May, but liquidity remains high year-to-date. Market analysts suggest that uncertainty around tariff negotiations is causing investors to wait for clearer signals [4] - Analysts predict that if tariff announcements indicate heightened trade tensions, gold may attract more buying interest, although the overall outlook remains cautiously optimistic [5] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's potential delay in interest rate cuts could negatively impact gold prices, as the market anticipates no rate cuts in the upcoming July meeting, with a 95% probability of a cut in September [5][6] - HSBC has raised its average gold price forecast for 2025 from 3,015 USD to 3,215 USD per ounce, while Citigroup has a bearish outlook, predicting a drop to 2,500 to 2,700 USD per ounce by Q2 2026 [5][6] - Citigroup's bearish stance on gold is based on several factors, including improved economic expectations from potential Fed rate cuts, a peak in gold long positions, and a possible rebound in the USD [6]