事关降息！美联储，重磅传来！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, aiming to align monetary policy with his fiscal priorities, which could lead to inflation, crises, and economic stagnation in the long run [2][5]. Group 1: Trump's Objectives - Trump's push for lower interest rates is intended to facilitate financing for the recently passed tax cuts by Congress [5]. - The article highlights Trump's attempt to break the traditional link between budget deficits and interest rates, suggesting that he seeks to force the Fed to lower rates to support his fiscal policies [5][6]. - The "fiscal dominance" model, as described in the article, is historically associated with weak central banks in emerging markets, often resulting in a dangerous mix of inflation and economic stagnation [5][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that the market might be pricing in Trump's views on interest rate cuts, predicting two rate cuts for the remainder of the year [3]. - The article notes that the U.S. Treasury is signaling a preference for short-term securities to avoid the impact of rising long-term interest rates on government financing costs [7]. - Despite a significant projected budget deficit, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has decreased from 4.55% in May to 4.35% recently, indicating market expectations of future rate cuts [10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Fed's Position - The article mentions that the Federal Reserve has maintained its interest rate policy, with the Federal Funds rate target range set at 4.25% to 4.5% [16]. - Recent employment data showed a stronger-than-expected job growth, which may lead the Fed to adopt a wait-and-see approach regarding interest rate changes [17][19]. - Market expectations suggest a low probability of a rate cut in the upcoming July meeting, with a 75% chance of a cut in September [22].