欧佩克+宣布增产，油价缘何不跌？

Core Viewpoint - The market's reaction to the OPEC+ decision to increase production in August has been muted, with many believing that actual output will not rise as much as announced due to countries like Iraq reducing their production [1][4][5]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, which is four times the previously planned increase from March and represents a 33% increase from the production levels of May to July [2][5]. - The market has shown a lack of response to the news of increased production, with WTI crude oil futures dropping by 2% to around $65 per barrel [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The expectation of increased supply typically leads to price declines; however, the actual production increase has been lower than anticipated, with Iraq's production decreasing by 50,000 barrels per day in May [5][6]. - OPEC+ employs three mechanisms to adjust production, including a coordinated reduction of 2 million barrels per day among all member countries [5][6]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Despite the anticipated increase in supply, demand remains strong, particularly in the Middle East during the summer months, with an expected increase in consumption by 400,000 to 500,000 barrels per day in July and August [6][7]. - The potential for oversupply may arise after September, depending on demand peaks and market focus on supply-demand balance, with forecasts suggesting WTI prices could drop to $60 per barrel by the end of 2025 [7].