关税压力、经济增长放缓、实际工资减少，日本央行加息路漫漫

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in normalizing monetary policy amid rising uncertainties due to U.S. tariffs and declining real wages in Japan, which complicate the economic outlook [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's real wages adjusted for inflation fell by 2.9% year-on-year in May, marking the largest decline in nearly two years, primarily due to inflation outpacing wage growth [5]. - The consumer inflation rate in Japan rose by 4.0% year-on-year in May, which has consistently exceeded the BOJ's target of 2% for over three years [5]. - Japan's economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter due to a decline in exports, marking the first shrinkage in a year [6]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - President Trump announced a plan to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from Japan and 13 other countries starting August 1, which could further exacerbate uncertainties in Japan's economic outlook [1][4]. - If the tariffs are fully implemented, Japan's GDP could potentially decline by 0.8 percentage points, with the automotive sector's profits expected to decrease by $19 billion [6]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Dilemma - The BOJ faces a dilemma between raising interest rates to control inflation and maintaining low rates to support economic growth amid increasing tariff uncertainties [8]. - Market analysts are divided on the BOJ's next steps, with some suggesting that the current economic conditions may delay any rate hikes [8]. - Some experts argue that the BOJ should maintain its current stance to buy time against tariff uncertainties, while others emphasize the need for a commitment to future rate increases [9].