外卖市场“三国争霸”！这一赛道或成最大赢家

Core Viewpoint - The new-style tea beverage sector is expected to benefit significantly from the ongoing subsidy war among major food delivery platforms, with companies like Tea Baidao, Gu Ming, and Mi Xue Group showing substantial stock price increases this year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market saw a collective surge in new-style tea beverage stocks, with Tea Baidao rising by 11% and Gu Ming and Mi Xue Group increasing by approximately 6% [1]. - Year-to-date performance shows Gu Ming up 178%, Mi Xue Group up 168%, and Luckin Coffee up 50% [1]. Group 2: Subsidy War Dynamics - On July 5, Alibaba and Meituan released a large number of high-value takeaway coupons, including offers like "25 off 21" and "16 off 16," with some items available for "zero purchase" [1]. - Following the launch of JD.com's food delivery service, a fierce competition has emerged among Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com, with a reported total investment of 25 billion yuan in the second quarter [1]. Group 3: Financial Implications - Goldman Sachs predicts that the current food delivery price war will last longer than expected, with Alibaba's food delivery business projected to lose 41 billion yuan over the next 12 months, JD.com 26 billion yuan, and Meituan's EBIT expected to decline by 25 billion yuan [2]. - In the capital market, Meituan's stock has dropped over 21%, JD.com nearly 6%, while Alibaba's stock has risen by 30% due to better-than-expected growth in its e-commerce business [2]. Group 4: Sector Opportunities - The new-style tea beverage sector is identified as a potential winner in the ongoing subsidy competition, benefiting from high consumer frequency and low average spending, especially during the summer sales peak [2]. - The introduction of large subsidy coupons is expected to drive user engagement and increase the popularity of tea beverages on delivery platforms [2].