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不惧关税扰动!MSCI全球指数创新高,印度缘何表现惨淡?
第一财经·2025-07-09 07:04

Core Viewpoint - Despite the unpredictable trade policies of the Trump administration, global stock markets have shown strong performance in 2025, with the MSCI Global Index rising approximately 10% as of July 4, reaching a historical high [2][4]. Global Market Performance - The MSCI Global Index, which measures the performance of over 2,500 stocks from developed and emerging markets, has reached a record high [4]. - European stock markets have emerged as "unexpected stars" in 2025, with Greece, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary leading global gains [6]. - The U.S. stock market, while reaching new highs, has only seen a 7.36% increase in the first half of the year, reflecting a decline in investor confidence in dollar assets [6]. European Market Insights - Greece's stock index has surged nearly 60% this year, driven by economic recovery, banking reforms, and a strong tourism sector [7]. - Poland and the Czech Republic have also performed well, with increases of 56% and 52% respectively [7]. - Analysts expect European markets to continue rising, supported by increased government spending and a favorable political consensus for necessary reforms [8][9]. Asia-Pacific Market Dynamics - The Asia-Pacific stock indices have shown mixed results, with South Korea's index rising over 30%, while Thailand and Indonesia have seen declines of 13.56% and 4.74% respectively [10]. - South Korea's market performance is attributed to improved investor sentiment following the election of a new president and anticipated corporate governance reforms [10]. - Asian markets are expected to remain stable, with governments capable of responding flexibly to potential growth slowdowns [11]. Sectoral Focus - Key sectors for investment in Asia include artificial intelligence, innovation, digital infrastructure, and local consumption, which are seen as vital for economic growth [12]. - The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is currently valued at a P/E ratio of 14.2, indicating attractive valuations, particularly for markets with strong domestic demand [12]. Underperforming Markets - Thailand's stock market has struggled due to political instability and economic challenges, with a decline of over 13% [14]. - Turkey's market has also faced significant headwinds, including high inflation and currency depreciation, leading to a 7.59% drop [14]. - India's stock market has underperformed with a gain of only 5.75%, but future earnings recovery is anticipated [14].