日本经济拉响警报！

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economic outlook has deteriorated, with the Cabinet Office's May economic index indicating a shift to "worsening" for the first time since July 2020, suggesting a high likelihood of recession [1] Economic Indicators - The current economic index stands at 115.9, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.1 percentage points, marking a second consecutive decrease [5] - Japan's Q1 2025 real GDP decreased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, translating to an annualized decline of 0.7%, marking the first quarter of negative growth in four quarters [1] Export and Trade Impact - Japan's exports fell to 81,350 billion yen in May, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, the first decline in eight months, primarily due to drops in automotive, steel, and mineral fuel exports [5] - Automotive exports decreased by 6.9%, steel exports by 20.6%, and mineral fuel exports plummeted by 50.7% [5] - The potential implementation of a 25% tariff on all Japanese goods by the U.S. could lead to a 0.8 percentage point decline in Japan's GDP and a $19 billion reduction in automotive industry profits [6] Wage and Inflation Trends - Japan's real wages adjusted for inflation fell by 2.9% year-on-year in May, marking the largest decline in 20 months, despite a nominal wage increase of 1.0% [6] - The consumer price index rose by 4.0% in May, remaining above 4% for six consecutive months, driven by high food prices [6] Consumer Spending Insights - Japanese household spending saw a significant increase of 4.7% year-on-year in May, the fastest growth in nearly three years, primarily due to increased automotive spending [9] - This growth exceeded economists' expectations of a 1.2% increase, indicating a potential recovery in consumer confidence [9] Future Considerations - The sustainability of consumer spending growth is contingent on real wage increases; continued inflation could undermine household purchasing power [10]