警惕全球贸易“逆风”！两大国际机构发声

Core Viewpoint - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its global trade outlook from an expected expansion to a downward adjustment due to increasing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: Global Trade Assessment - The WTO's latest report indicates a rise in global trade policy activities, with escalating tensions among major trading partners contributing to increased trade uncertainty [1]. - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) forecasts a $300 billion increase in global trade for the first half of the year, but warns of significant obstacles in the second half due to U.S. trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [1][7]. Group 2: Trade Policy and Measures - Since the beginning of the year, the U.S. has implemented various bilateral and global trade measures, prompting some economies to introduce trade facilitation measures while others have announced retaliatory measures, primarily involving tariff increases [3]. - The WTO calls for countries to reduce tariffs and other trade barriers to promote trade liberalization and economic growth, emphasizing the need for transparency in trade policies [3]. Group 3: Trade Volume Predictions - The WTO's earlier predictions for global trade growth in 2025 and 2026 have been significantly downgraded due to U.S. tariff policies, with expectations for a 0.2% decline in goods trade and a slower growth outlook for services trade [4]. - The WTO's Goods Trade Barometer shows a rise in the global goods trade index from 102.8 to 103.5, but a decline in new export orders indicates a potential slowdown in trade growth later this year [6]. Group 4: Trade Imbalances and Risks - The UNCTAD report highlights a worsening trade imbalance, with the U.S. trade deficit continuing to expand over the past four quarters, raising concerns about the fragmentation risks associated with recent U.S. tariff measures [7]. - The report warns that if U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" are fully implemented or if trade policy uncertainty spreads globally, a contraction in trade could occur [7].