警惕全球贸易“逆风”，两大国际机构发声

Core Viewpoint - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its global trade outlook from an expected expansion to a downward adjustment due to increasing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties [1][3]. Group 1: Global Trade Assessment - The WTO's latest report indicates that global trade policy activities have increased, with rising tensions among major trading partners contributing to a more volatile and unpredictable trade environment [1]. - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) forecasts a $300 billion increase in global trade for the first half of the year, but warns of significant obstacles in the second half due to U.S. trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [1][4]. Group 2: Trade Barriers and Policy Recommendations - The WTO calls for countries to reduce tariffs and other trade barriers to promote trade liberalization and economic growth, emphasizing the need for transparency in trade policies [2]. - The report highlights that retaliatory measures, such as those taken by Canada and the EU against U.S. trade policies, are likely to exacerbate trade tensions and lead to a decline in global trade volume [2]. Group 3: Trade Growth Projections - Earlier projections for global trade growth in 2025 and 2026 have been significantly downgraded due to U.S. tariff policies, with expectations for merchandise trade growth now revised downward [3]. - The WTO's Goods Trade Barometer indicates a slight increase in the global goods trade index, but a decline in new export orders suggests a slowdown in trade growth later this year [4]. Group 4: Trade Imbalances and Risks - The report notes an increase in global trade imbalances, particularly with the U.S. experiencing a widening trade deficit over the past four quarters [5]. - The potential for further unilateral actions by the U.S. could escalate trade tensions and disrupt global supply chains, increasing the risk of trade fragmentation [5].