全球铜价走势“不同调”：美铜暴涨10%后沪铜反跌，啥情况？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the divergent trends in copper prices between the US and other markets, particularly in light of the potential 50% tariff on copper imports proposed by President Trump, which has led to significant price fluctuations in the COMEX market compared to LME and Shanghai copper futures [1][2][9]. Market Trends - On July 8, the COMEX copper futures surged nearly 10% in a single day, while other markets like Shanghai copper futures remained relatively stable, with a slight decline of 1.36% on July 9 [4][5]. - The year-to-date performance shows that COMEX copper futures have increased by over 30%, while LME and Shanghai copper futures have only seen around 10% growth [7]. Tariff Impact - The proposed 50% tariff on copper imports is expected to significantly widen the price gap between COMEX and LME copper, which has already exceeded $2,500 per ton [9]. - If the tariff is implemented, it may reduce the "siphoning effect" on global copper inventories, leading to a potential easing of supply pressures in non-US markets [9]. Company Responses - Companies like Zhaolong Interconnect and Chuanjiang New Materials have indicated that their pricing strategies are closely tied to copper prices, with adjustments made based on market fluctuations [11][12]. - Wolong Nuclear Materials has stated that they are actively monitoring copper price changes and have implemented cost control measures to mitigate the impact of rising copper prices on profitability [13]. Future Outlook - The supply side of copper remains constrained, with declining processing fees and tight raw material supplies, while demand may weaken due to seasonal factors [15][16]. - The article suggests that the short-term outlook for copper prices may be bearish due to the tariff risks and seasonal demand decline, but medium-term support may come from supply constraints [16].