央行增持黄金，普通投资者跟不跟

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for cautious consideration of asset allocation for ordinary investors entering the gold investment field, especially given the recent rapid rise in gold prices to historical highs, which may increase financial risks contrary to the hedging logic of gold investment [1]. Group 1: Gold Investment Trends - As of July 7, 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves exceeded $3.3 trillion, with pure gold holdings rising for eight consecutive months to 73.9 million ounces [2]. - There have been instances where central banks increased gold holdings, yet gold prices declined, such as during the period from 2012 to 2016 when central banks bought significantly more gold than they sold, while international gold prices continued to fall [3][4]. - The domestic gold price increased from a low of 368 yuan per gram in January 2022 to a high of 825 yuan per gram in April 2025, marking a 124% increase, while international gold prices also saw over a 110% rise during the same period [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The increase in gold prices is influenced by geopolitical tensions, the deepening of U.S.-China relations, and a weakening U.S. dollar, which are seen as significant factors affecting the political and economic landscape for decades to come [4]. - In the second quarter of 2025, global gold ETFs experienced a net outflow of 123 tons, the largest quarterly outflow in three years, indicating that some investors are choosing to take profits and exit the gold market [5]. - Domestic retail sales of gold and silver jewelry grew by 12.3% year-on-year from January to May 2025, with a peak in trading volume in April, suggesting a surge in investor interest [6]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Considerations - The article suggests that the key to achieving substantial returns from gold lies in long-term holding, as short-term investments may yield lower returns due to the lack of interest income compared to other investment vehicles [7]. - Investors should be aware of the high repurchase price spread when selling physical gold, which can be over 10% lower than the purchase price, and consider transaction costs when making investment decisions [7]. - The article warns that as more ordinary investors flock to the gold market, it may indicate that gold prices have already factored in current uncertainties, potentially reaching a peak in demand [6][7].