再度爆发，多晶硅期货突破4万元！交易所紧急提保、扩板

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in polysilicon futures is attributed to the acceleration of the "anti-involution" policy, making it the hottest commodity in the futures market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On July 10, polysilicon futures rose by 5.5%, surpassing the 40,000 yuan mark, closing at 41,345 yuan/ton, reaching a near three-month high with a trading volume of 1.015 million lots, setting a historical record [2][7] - Since July, polysilicon futures have seen a cumulative increase of over 23% [7] - The trading volume for all polysilicon contracts reached 1.557 million lots, with an open interest of 326,000 lots, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market [8] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The polysilicon market has experienced significant volatility this year due to supply-demand mismatches and policy adjustments [4] - Earlier in the year, polysilicon prices stabilized due to increased demand for N-type technology, but a subsequent drop in demand led to prices falling to around 31,000 yuan, even below the industry cost line [5] - The "anti-involution" policy has catalyzed a sudden price surge in polysilicon futures, with notable price increases on July 2 and 8 [6] Group 3: Price Adjustments and Market Sentiment - The SMM polysilicon price index on July 10 was 44.8 yuan/kg, with N-type polysilicon prices ranging from 43 to 49 yuan/kg, reflecting a significant recovery in spot prices [9] - Some companies have raised their quotes to 49 yuan/kg, driven by the need to align prices with comprehensive cost calculations, which have increased due to depreciation costs [10] - The recent price hikes are primarily due to polysilicon companies operating at a loss for over a year, leading to a need to clear inventory and comply with pricing regulations [10] Group 4: Regulatory Measures - In response to the rising volatility in polysilicon futures, the Guangxi Futures Exchange announced a margin adjustment policy on July 10 to cool down the overheated market and mitigate risks [3][14] - The new margin requirements for speculative trading have been set at 11%, while hedging transactions require a margin of 10% [13] Group 5: Industry Outlook - Despite the rapid increase in polysilicon prices, other key commodities like lithium carbonate and industrial silicon have only seen slight increases, indicating potential oversupply issues in the photovoltaic industry [11] - The high concentration of the industry and unexpected joint production cuts have led to a quicker turnaround in supply-demand dynamics, resulting in greater price volatility for polysilicon [11]