“狼来了”不灵了？这次，国际投资者很淡定！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of proposed 200% tariffs on pharmaceutical imports in the U.S., which could lead to significant drug shortages and affect both brand-name and generic drug manufacturers [1]. Group 1: Tariff Implications - President Trump announced that pharmaceutical companies will have about one to one and a half years to adjust before facing tariffs as high as 200% on imported drugs and related products [1]. - Barclays analyst Emily Field noted that investors are not taking the tariff threat seriously, viewing it as mere "bluster" [1]. - Capstone's analysis indicates that a 200% tariff could lead to drug shortages in the U.S., as brand-name manufacturers would face increased import costs for components, while generic manufacturers might exit the U.S. market to protect their already thin margins [1]. Group 2: Investment Plans by Pharmaceutical Companies - Several U.S. and European pharmaceutical companies have announced significant investment plans in the U.S., including Novartis's $23 billion investment over five years and Roche's $50 billion investment [4]. - Eli Lilly and Johnson & Johnson have also announced investment plans worth $27 billion and over $55 billion, respectively [4]. - AstraZeneca announced a $3.5 billion investment in the U.S. last year [4]. Group 3: Trade Negotiations and Export Data - Ireland is the largest exporter of pharmaceuticals to the U.S., with exports valued at $50 billion in 2024, followed by Switzerland, Germany, Singapore, and India [6]. - Singapore has prioritized pharmaceutical supply chains in trade negotiations with the U.S., with discussions scheduled for later this month [6]. - India exported $27.9 billion worth of pharmaceuticals in the fiscal year ending March 2024, with nearly one-third going to the U.S., highlighting the country's reliance on the U.S. market [6].