美国关税引发的通胀有限

Core Viewpoint - The report from the White House Council of Economic Advisers indicates that even with tariff costs included, the prices of imported goods remain cheaper than before the tariffs were implemented [1][7]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Prices - The U.S. Treasury Department reported that tariff revenue exceeded $22 billion in May, which is three times the average level expected for 2024 [3]. - The consumer price index (CPI) in May showed a slowdown in the month-on-month increase, with the core index rising only 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.3%, primarily due to declines in automobile and clothing prices [4]. - Japanese automakers have significantly reduced the prices of vehicles exported to the U.S., with a reported 17.7% drop from March to May, as a strategy to avoid raising local prices despite reduced profits [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Predictions and Reactions - The initial impact of tariffs has been less severe than expected, leading to a shift in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations from December to September [5]. - The White House report suggests that the theory of optimal tariffs is being validated, as higher tariffs have led to a decrease in the prices of imported goods due to reduced demand [7]. - President Trump has publicly stated that import prices are indeed declining, urging the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to consider this in his monetary policy decisions [8]. Group 3: Future Considerations - There is a concern that the pressure for excessive cost-cutting in the automotive industry may spread to suppliers, potentially impacting the overall market [6]. - The trade deficit reached a historical high before the introduction of reciprocal tariffs, as businesses increased imports to avoid price hikes, indicating that the inflationary effects of tariffs may take longer to manifest [9].