银行板块历史新高之际：写写红利与回报

Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector has been experiencing significant growth, with the China Securities Banking Index outperforming both gold and the Nasdaq 100 since the beginning of 2024, indicating its status as a high-yield asset globally [2]. Group 1: Reasons for Banking Sector Growth - The banking sector's rise is attributed to multiple factors, including high dividends, improved return on equity (ROE), and substantial inflows from passive index funds, particularly in the context of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [6][10]. - The valuation recovery is a key driver, as the price-to-book (PB) ratio has decreased faster than ROE from 2021 to 2023, suggesting significant room for valuation correction [11]. - The introduction of policies to alleviate real estate financing pressures has reduced systemic risk concerns, thereby improving the asset quality outlook for banks [14]. Group 2: Institutional Investment Trends - By the end of 2024, core institutional investors, including active public funds, passive funds, insurance capital, and northbound funds, held 23.9% of the free-floating market value of bank stocks [18]. - Passive funds and northbound capital have been the primary contributors to the increased holdings in banking stocks, with active funds also showing a trend of rising positions [19]. Group 3: Evolution of Dividend Investment Logic - The past few years have seen a shift in investment logic towards high-dividend assets, which have provided a psychological safety net for investors amid declining interest rates [23]. - The performance of dividend assets has shown resilience, particularly during market downturns, with banking and non-banking sectors demonstrating relative stability [29]. - The relationship between dividend yield and stock price movements is expected to evolve, with a growing emphasis on the sustainability of dividends based on free cash flow rather than solely on historical yields [31][34]. Group 4: Free Cash Flow as a New Investment Strategy - Free cash flow is identified as a critical metric for assessing a company's ability to sustain dividends, with a focus on the stability and growth potential of earnings [35]. - The development of the National Free Cash Flow Index has provided a new tool for investors, emphasizing the importance of free cash flow in selecting high-quality stocks [41]. - Historical performance data indicates that the free cash flow index has outperformed traditional dividend indices, highlighting its effectiveness as an investment strategy [42][47].