孟晓苏：日本楼市崩盘与二十年低迷，政策失误与舆情失控的历史教训

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the lessons learned from Japan's real estate bubble and subsequent crash, emphasizing the importance of balanced policy-making and effective public sentiment management in preventing similar crises in other countries, particularly China [2][19][26]. Group 1: Background and Initial Conditions - Japan's real estate market experienced a massive bubble in the late 1980s, fueled by nationalistic sentiments and excessive lending practices, leading to a collective societal blindness towards the risks of real estate speculation [3][4]. - The bubble burst in 1991, resulting in a prolonged economic downturn known as the "lost two decades," characterized by a significant decline in real estate prices and manufacturing demand [1][19]. Group 2: Policy Responses and Market Reactions - The Japanese government initially adopted a "bubble bursting" strategy in 1989, which involved aggressive interest rate hikes and credit restrictions, ultimately leading to a catastrophic market collapse [6][8]. - The Nikkei 225 index fell nearly 50% within ten months, and commercial land prices in Tokyo dropped by 15% in a single year, marking a reversal of a 36-year upward trend [6][8]. Group 3: Taxation and Market Dynamics - In 1992, the introduction of heavy taxation, including a land tax and increased transaction taxes, exacerbated the market downturn by raising holding costs and forcing many investors to sell their properties [10][12]. - The proliferation of "foreclosure properties" during the crisis distorted market pricing, leading to a downward spiral in property values and a significant drop in consumer demand [11][16]. Group 4: Government Crisis Management Failures - The Japanese government's delayed response to the crisis, including a lack of timely rescue measures and a focus on bailing out banks rather than supporting the real economy, contributed to the prolonged economic stagnation [12][13]. - The failure to adjust policies in response to changing public sentiment and economic conditions resulted in a loss of public trust and further complicated recovery efforts [15][19]. Group 5: Lessons for China - The article highlights the need for balanced policy-making that considers both tightening and stimulus measures, as well as the importance of managing public expectations to avoid panic and market instability [20][21][22]. - It emphasizes the necessity of a coordinated risk prevention framework to mitigate systemic risks across different markets, as well as the importance of timely and appropriate tax policies during economic downturns [23][24]. - The experience of Japan serves as a cautionary tale for China, underscoring the need for structural reforms in the real estate sector to ensure long-term market health and stability [25][26].