多空拉锯，“黄金+”还靠谱吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices due to new tariffs and market uncertainties, highlighting the potential for gold to serve as a safe-haven asset amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic concerns [1][3]. Market Overview - On July 11, gold prices rose to $3,370 per ounce, marking a 1.34% increase, with COMEX gold futures experiencing three consecutive days of gains [1]. - The market is currently seeing a tug-of-war around the $3,300 per ounce mark, with significant speculative activity noted [2][3]. - In the first half of the year, gold prices reached new highs, with London gold peaking at $3,500 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of approximately 28% [3]. Speculative Activity - As of July 1, speculative positions in COMEX gold futures increased to 136,697 contracts, the highest in 11 weeks, but saw a reduction to 134,842 contracts by July 8 [3]. - The market is currently in a phase of consolidation after speculative trading, with gold prices experiencing a range-bound movement since the second quarter [3]. Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves to 73.9 million ounces as of the end of June, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [4]. - Globally, central banks have been net buyers of gold for 15 years, with a survey indicating that over 30% of reserve managers plan to increase their gold holdings in the next year [4]. Institutional Investment Trends - There has been a notable increase in institutional investment in gold, with public funds and bank wealth management products expanding their "gold+" offerings, which typically allocate 5% to 10% of their portfolios to gold [6]. - The number of funds of funds (FOFs) holding gold ETFs has doubled over the past four years, reaching 234 by mid-2025, compared to just 20 in 2021 [6]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term price fluctuations, gold is viewed as a stable asset for long-term allocation, particularly in the context of increasing global uncertainties [7]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and rising national debt is expected to sustain demand for gold as a hedge against market volatility [8].