车企都不好过，谁特别不好过？以及，围攻比亚迪

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market in the first half of 2025 is characterized by intense competition, with sales growth driven by promotional activities and significant reliance on government subsidies [1][2]. Group 1: Overall Market Performance - The wholesale volume of passenger cars reached 13.279 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, while retail sales totaled 10.9 million units, up 10.8% [3]. - Exports showed strong performance, with 2.16 million units exported from January to May, reflecting a 15% year-on-year growth, and new energy vehicle (NEV) exports reached 1.16 million units, up 33% [3]. - The promotional discount for traditional fuel vehicles remained stable at 23.3%, while NEV promotions decreased to 10.2%, indicating ongoing price competition [3][4]. - The inventory pressure on dealers is significant, with only 27.5% of 4S stores meeting sales targets, leading to increased stock levels and financial strain [4]. Group 2: Traditional Domestic Brands - The price war among traditional domestic brands continues, with promotional discounts for fuel vehicles reaching 18.3%, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - BYD leads the market with a sales volume of 2.146 million units, a 33% increase, while other brands like Geely and Changan also show significant growth [5][6]. - Geely's NEV sales reached 725,200 units, a 126% increase, highlighting its competitive positioning against BYD [7]. Group 3: New Forces in the Market - New energy vehicle startups face significant operational pressures, with only 3 out of 12 achieving sales targets above 40% [8]. - Leap Motor leads in cumulative deliveries among new forces, while XPeng Motors has seen a rebound in sales with its new model [8]. - The market demands a strong value proposition from new energy vehicles, emphasizing the need for competitive pricing and unique product positioning [8]. Group 4: Joint Ventures - Joint venture brands have shown signs of recovery, with overall sales increasing by 11% in the first half of 2025, driven by fuel and hybrid vehicle promotions [10]. - The promotional intensity for fuel vehicles reached a historical peak of 23.1%, particularly in the luxury segment [10]. - Although joint ventures lag in NEV penetration, some models are gaining traction, indicating potential for future growth [10]. Group 5: Market Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 - Price wars are expected to persist, with ongoing product launches and competitive pricing strategies [11]. - The continuation of subsidy policies will be crucial for stimulating market demand, as previous incentives have largely been exhausted [11]. - The automotive industry is transitioning towards a more complex competitive landscape, requiring brands to innovate beyond traditional product offerings [11][13].