美债，又陷风暴？！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" Act on the U.S. Treasury market, highlighting concerns over increased fiscal deficits and trade conflicts, which have led to rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields [2][10]. Treasury Yield Trends - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields have shown increased volatility, with the 30-year yield approaching 5% and the 10-year yield nearing 4.5% [3][4]. - As of recent data, the 30-year Treasury yield is at 4.981%, while the 10-year yield is at 4.5% [4][5]. - The prices of long-term Treasury futures have also fluctuated, with the 10-year futures price dropping to 110.77 from a peak of nearly 112 earlier in the year [5][6]. Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on monetary policy is influenced by strong labor market data, with non-farm payrolls adding 147,000 jobs, aligning with the average monthly increase over the past year [8]. - The Fed's decision-making will continue to rely on economic data, with a current low unemployment rate and inflation slightly above the 2% target [8]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have diminished, with a 95.3% probability of no change in July [8]. Legislative Impact - The "Big and Beautiful" Act, signed into law, raises the federal debt ceiling to $5 trillion and aims to stimulate economic growth through tax cuts [10]. - Concerns about increased Treasury supply due to the Act may lead to a temporary rise in Treasury yields [10]. - The net issuance of Treasury bonds is expected to be around $1 trillion in the third quarter, with refinancing pressures easing compared to previous quarters [10]. Trade Policy Concerns - Ongoing trade tensions, particularly the announcement of new tariffs on imports from Mexico and the EU, add to market uncertainties [11]. - Despite these challenges, the long-term value of U.S. Treasuries remains supported by the market's recognition of U.S. creditworthiness and the stability of Treasury yields [11].